Navy’s 30-Year Fleet Expansion Plan Tops $1 Trillion, Says CBO

The U.S. Navy plans to increase its battle force fleet to 381 ships by 2054, a strategy that will require a substantial $40.1 billion annually for shipbuilding, amounting to over $1 trillion, according to a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis. The Navy currently has 295 battleforce ships, a number expected to decline to 283 by 2027 as planned retirements exceed new commissions.

The Navy intends to accelerate its shipbuilding initiatives in the early 2030s to meet its fleet expansion goals and respond to rising global threats. Nonetheless, the CBO anticipates that this would necessitate funding levels 46% higher than the Navy’s average annual budget over the past five years. By 2054, the Navy’s total annual budget will need to increase to $340 billion, up from the current $255 billion, with $40 billion allocated for shipbuilding and $45 billion designated for operations, maintenance, and weapons procurement.

The CBO's cost projections surpass the Navy's estimates by 8% to 16%, highlighting delays, design complexities, and costs in shipbuilding efforts that were previously underestimated. The office has characterized the plan’s costs as elevated when compared to both recent and historical funding trends because of these challenges.

Since 2015, Congress has consistently provided $2.5 billion more annually for shipbuilding than the amount requested by the president, underscoring concerns about fleet size and mission capability. The last time shipbuilding funding peaked at comparable levels was during the 1980s, spurred by President Ronald Reagan’s plan for a 600-ship Navy.

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